Why do some people think linux is dying???

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Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby Gutentag » Oct 15th, '13, 06:31

Hi I was really curious to why some people think Linux is dying? They say that the market share is shrinking and people are dropping support for it, Ex: Adobe Flash. Though the adobe thing is true but I really doubt the market share is shrinking, besides even if it was it wouldn't matter for the community is very lively and no where close to dying.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby filip » Oct 15th, '13, 07:07

Welcome Gutentag.

In my opinion dying Flash has nothing to do with platform. Linux or any other.
Market share is relative. See mobile market where linux fork has 3/4 of it. See servers area where the exact numbers are unknown to me but linux has probably way above 50%. At 500 top computing machines IIRC there is more than 95% linux. There was similar percentage on tablet and netbook market for linux and it's fork on the beginning. Probably it's a title less now but I don't exactly know how much.
On the desktop and notebook area there is no exact number but probably there is a few % linux. Not much but I'm sure the number is growing there. People slowly recognise linux as a low cost, stable and usable alternative to MS systems. I see a next bigger opportunity for linux in XP expiry date in April.

Looking those facts to me it seems that linux prospers so I can't really answer on title question. I'll try. People are strange creatures. We tend to believe what we want to believe. That is one reason. To unlock and setup "linux house" takes more time that some other OSes but when that is done it's really comfortable and safe. That is the other one I suppose.
There are probably more.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby Gutentag » Oct 15th, '13, 07:44

I agree exactly with you. I only questioned when I saw a post on the Internet. " http://www.dedoimedo.com/computers/flas ... uture.html " which not only made me mad with such a stupid theory but wounder what the rest of the community thought about it.The only thing I don't agree on is the growth of Linux after the death of Windows XP... well not at-least immediately. Being a dedicated member and every day user of Windows 98 I get to see the determination of people to keep something alive. If I can use Windows 98 with a modern browser, flash player, and up to date anti-virus I'm sure XP will live for a year or two. (Linux is like this but on a much bigger scale) The fall of XP will come when 3rd party people give up on it. Which will happen slowly but surely as MS will be mass advertising their hideous windows 8 with apple soon to follow. During that time the rise of Linux will happen for all you have to say is free and people will listen. The out come of this will be most interesting and I cant wait for the show to begin. LONG LIVE LINUX AND WINDOWS 98!!!!
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby filip » Oct 15th, '13, 09:35

Interesting article. There is some truth in it. And some good points. While I'm not sure if abandoning of 90% of distros would help I think that some effort in for example a LSB ways of standardisation could be useful for users and also devs. Binary incompatibility is one of the biggest weaknesses (bad portability) and on the other hand also good point (diversity provides some security as in evolution: not everything is dead when something bad happen) in the same time. I don't care much about proprietary programs as long as they use open formats for their input and output. That way I have a choice. I want and need choice. I like Mageia because it's a community distro. There's no corporation behind. That sometimes probably makes us less efficient but gives us much more freedom and fun. During contribution and use.

Please note that I use words "opportunity for linux" and not growth. As there is no big plan for that it will happen slowly and sporadically. But I agree with you that when 3rd party support for OS ceases then its doomed to obscurity sooner rather than latter.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby jiml8 » Oct 15th, '13, 18:04

The article DOES make some good points, and fragmentation in Linux is probably the single biggest reason it is not a much larger presence on the desktop. Not only is it fragmented, but there are no standards to the UI such that a program developed for one UI will work across all UIs. This makes the test matrix for any developer who wishes to make a commercial product that runs on Linux into a freakin' nightmare.

I have a product in the marketplace that I started work on 22 years ago. This is a vertical niche program that I initially deployed it in my office where it ran a business of mine and was tested by my employees. In 2000, I started selling it on the internet. It started life on the Amiga, and by the time I started selling it, it was a Windows-only package. It sold fairly well.

Fast-forward to the present. My product is totally obsolete; it will not run on 64 bit Windows and 32 bit Windows is dying. Not quite dead yet, but dying. My choices are to abandon the product or to rewrite it.

Well, it is a good product. I have rewritten it using a completely new environment, and in this new environment it is fully modern and runs on both 64 bit (also 32 bit of course...I develop it in Windows 2000) Windows and Linux. Presently it is in beta testing (I still need a couple of beta sites...I no longer run that business that was so key in testing this thing before) but my current release plans are Windows-only.

Why? Because the Linux version only runs on redhat-descended distros using Gnome, which is where I have tested it. It probably does not run on all of those. The wxWidgets package (which is central to this new package) behaves differently on Gnome and on KDE, and there are some problems using it with KDE. I have loaded my package on some other distros and encountered problems. To make it run on all distros, even all major distros...I simply don't have the resources and it would not be profitable anyway. To provide config instructions for every distro out there...well...my end-user base tends to be clueless anyway and they want to install and use. If they need a degree in computer science in order to configure it, they won't like it and will harass me with support requests.

I do intend to release an Android version that will play in a client/server role with the desktop version. But Android is a big market and more or less uniform, once I get past the display resolution issues.

But, that's my developer's perspective of desktop Linux. My perspective is by no means unique; I won't develop for-profit user packages for Linux, and that's why.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby Gutentag » Oct 15th, '13, 18:06

Good point so not everything he said was total junk. I remember when i first used Linux back in '03. My dad sick of Windows and its failing went to the store and bought a computer specifically built for Linux (Xandros distro). We had it for a year before he got rid of it claiming it a TOY. He later went of to drink Steve Jobs koolaid and now he has macs. I never forgot Linux though and in '11 tried to put it on my net-book with Mandriva 2011. Unfortunately that didn't work and I was stuck with Ubunto which I hated. Then about a month ago I wanted to try again with Mandriva which is when I found it that they killed their free distro. I then found this site from Wikipedia to which I pulled out the dvd and installed Mageia 3 with gnome and fell in love. It was way better than Ubunto and I will never go back. The only thing I can complain about is the binary incompatibility. I still have trouble downloading things but I adjust. Oh and with the opportunity for Linux like you said their is no real plan, well at least not directly. Indirectly by creating all of these distros and websites we just seeded the Internet with Linux. When XP falls most of its users wont be able to afford new computers or upgrades to their computers to update to windows 7 (if you cant afford Windows than a Mac is out of the picture) people will then do the only thing they could... search the web. that is when they will find Linux which is free or very cheep, and Linux will rise. well maybe it wont be Microsoft monopoly then now would it.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby Gutentag » Oct 15th, '13, 18:09

Good point Jiml8 didnt think of it like that.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby doktor5000 » Oct 15th, '13, 20:44

Well, it always depends where you look at - e.g. Humble Indie Bundle offers all their games for linux.
Steam went to Linux and will probably offer a set-top-box running Steam under linux, Spotify went to linux, so there's still hope overall.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby Gutentag » Oct 15th, '13, 21:56

I dont know which one but its rather Dell or HP that sells computers that come with Ubuntu cant remember.

**EDIT; it was dell.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby jiml8 » Oct 16th, '13, 02:41

If I am not mistaken, steam is specifically supporting Ubuntu, isn't it?
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby doktor5000 » Oct 16th, '13, 20:36

Well, you can't ask for supporting all major distributions, no?
And officially supported and working are two different things ;)
Same with Spotify: viewtopic.php?f=41&t=2752

And since Mageia 3 Steam is in our repos: https://wiki.mageia.org/en/Mageia_3_Release_Notes#Games
What could you ask more?
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby Gutentag » Oct 16th, '13, 23:43

well yeah but dell doesn't just only come with windows or Ubuntu , they also can come with free dos O.O no joke http://www.dell.com/content/learnmore/l ... ries=dimen
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby doktor5000 » Oct 16th, '13, 23:53

What's your point?
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby Gutentag » Oct 17th, '13, 01:26

my point is if big companies sell computers with obsolete OSs (not Linux) then I dont know maybe they would start looking at other OSs like mint, ubuntu (already do), mageia??
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby filip » Oct 17th, '13, 07:56

I'm puzzled. You hold on on Windows 98 which is not maintained for several years but on the other hand you claim that actively maintained FreeDOS is obsolete.

Big companies like Dell for example are just making money. If that is possible by selling "nonmainstream" OS that is equally profit. That is their first objective and not to have a choice of several different distros or to install the most popular (or beautiful, effective...) linux out there or to give customer perfectly smooth experience. Like it or not stockholders just look at the numbers.
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Re: Why do some people think linux is dying???

Postby Gutentag » Oct 18th, '13, 04:10

Well yes Win98 has been unsupported since 2006,but unofficial updates made by dedicated developers are still made like kernelEx for example which allows me to run Win Xp and vista/7 programs (of course not all but a good amount like flash player 11). Their are even patches that allow you to run more than a gig of ram and beat the 128 gig hard drive limit! * http://www.msfn.org/board/topic/118097- ... 1-gib-ram/ * <--all info about it here. While yes free dos is still suported though what can you really do with it now a days for the average user... nothing. Infact they only include it so they dont get sued and even then you have to download it yourself to the computer. (Dell even states its obsolete) " Free dos info from http://www.freedos.org/ ---FreeDOS is a free DOS-compatible operating system that can be used to play games, run legacy software, or support embedded systems."

**Note; all of my posts were made on my windows 98se computer which has opera 12.02)**
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